This and blogging about it next week will probably be the extent of me being ebullient for the Tonys. So here they are, presented with who I think will win and who will win in the event of an upset. Special thanks to my father who aided in the predictions for musicals.
Best Musical
-“Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: “Next to Normal”
Best Play
-“God of Carnage”
–In the event of an upset: “Dividing the Estate”
Hey, it’s an American play.
Best Revival of a Musical
-“Hair”
–In the event of an upset: “West Side Story”
I really, really doubt that “Hair” will lose the Tony for Best Revival of a Musical. But if any of the nominees beat out “Hair”, it would probably be “West Side Story”
Best Revival of a Play
-“The Norman Conquests”
–In the event of an upset: “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
I’m going with those two because they’re the two most critically acclaimed revivals, but I really doubt that “The Norman Conquests” won’t win the Tony.
Best Book of a Musical
-Lee Hall, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Brian Yorkey, “Next to Normal”
Let’s just say that I’m predicting that if any show upsets “Billy Elliot”, it will be “Next to Normal”.
Best Original Score of a Musical
-Elton John and Lee Hall, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Brian Yorkey and Tom Kitt, “Next to Normal”
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
-Geoffrey Rush, “Exit the King”
–In the event of an upset: Jeff Daniels, “God of Carnage”
I adore Raul Esparza, but I’m not holding my breath for him to win a Tony this year. But if he does win, you’ll know about it.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
-Marcia Gay Hardin, “God of Carnage”
–In the event of an upset: Janet McTeer, “Mary Stuart”
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
-David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish; “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Gavin Creel, “Hair”
If the three Billys don’t win, that will be quite the upset.
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
-Alice Ripley, “Next to Normal”
–In the event of an upset: Josefina Scaglione, “West Side Story”
I might be over confident that Alice Ripley will win. Watch me be wrong.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
-Roger Robinson, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
–In the event of an upset: Stephen Mangan, “The Norman Conquests”
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
-Angela Lansbury, “Blithe Spirit”
–In the event of an upset: Hallie Foote, “Dividing the Estate”
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
-Gregory Jbara, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Will Swenson, “Hair”
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
-Karen Olivio, “West Side Story”
–In the event of an upset: Haydn Gwynne, “Billy Elliot”
I am maybe overly confident that Karen Olivio will win this, but if not, Haydn Gwynne.
Best Direction of a Play
-Matthew Warchus, “The Norman Conquests”
–In the event of an upset: Bartlett Sher, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone” or Phyllida Lloyd, “Mary Stuart”
Statistically, Matthew Warchus has the best chances of winning.
Best Direction of a Musical
-Stephen Daldry, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Diane Paulus, “Hair”
What is it with Stephen Daldry and juggernauts?
Best Choreography
-Peter Darling, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Karole Armitage, “Hair”
I really doubt that Peter Darling won’t win the Tony Award. Come on, the show is about a boy who want’s to do ballet.
Best Orchestrations
-Martin Koch, “Billy Elliot”
–In the event of an upset: Larry Blank, “Irving Berlin’s White Christmas”
From now on, “In the event of an upset” means “If this show doesn’t win, it will be this show”
Best Scenic Design of a Play
-Rob Howell, “The Norman Conquests”
–In the event of an upset: Derek McLane, “33 Variations”
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
-Mark Wendland, “Next to Normal”
–In the event of an upset: Ian MacNeil, “Billy Elliot”
What? Did you think I was going to say “Guys and Dolls” for an upset?
Best Costume Design of a Play
-Dale Ferguson, “Exit the King”
–In the event of an upset: Anthony Ward, “Mary Stuart”
Best Costume Design of a Musical
-Michael McDonald, “Hair”
–In the event of an upset: Nicky Gillibrand, “Billy Elliot”
I just think it’s safe to put “Billy Elliot” in.
Best Lighting Design of a Play
-Hugh Vanstone, “Mary Stuart”
–In the event of an upset: David Lander, “33 Variations”
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
-Howell Binkley, “West Side Story”
–In the event of an upset: Kevin Adams for either “Hair” or “Next to Normal”
Again, statistics.
Best Sound Design of a Play
-Paul Arditti, “Mary Stuart”
–In the event of an upset:I have no clue.
There is a thunderstorm that happens in “Mary Stuart”.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
-Brian Ronan, “Next to Normal”
–In the event of an upset: Paul Arditti, “Billy Elliot”
I read Hilton Als review of “Hair”. And every review I’ve read on a blog of “Rock of Ages” has said the show was loud.
Best Special Theatrical Event
-“Liza’s At the Palace”
–In the event of an upset: “You’re Welcome America: A Final Night With George W. Bush”
My father: It’s Liza. ‘Nuff said.
Remember to come back here next Sunday when I’ll be live-blogging, or more or less blogging during the commercial breaks.