2009 Tony Award Predictions

TonyAward

This and blogging about it next week will probably be the extent of me being ebullient for the Tonys. So here they are, presented with who I think will win and who will win in the event of an upset. Special thanks to my father who aided in the predictions for musicals.

Best Musical
-“Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: “Next to Normal”

Best Play
-“God of Carnage”
In the event of an upset: “Dividing the Estate”
Hey, it’s an American play.

Best Revival of a Musical
-“Hair”
In the event of an upset: “West Side Story”
I really, really doubt that “Hair” will lose the Tony for Best Revival of a Musical. But if any of the nominees beat out “Hair”, it would probably be “West Side Story”

Best Revival of a Play
-“The Norman Conquests”
In the event of an upset: “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
I’m going with those two because they’re the two most critically acclaimed revivals, but I really doubt that “The Norman Conquests” won’t win the Tony.

Best Book of a Musical
-Lee Hall, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Brian Yorkey, “Next to Normal”
Let’s just say that I’m predicting that if any show upsets “Billy Elliot”, it will be “Next to Normal”.

Best Original Score of a Musical
-Elton John and Lee Hall, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Brian Yorkey and Tom Kitt, “Next to Normal”

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
-Geoffrey Rush, “Exit the King”
In the event of an upset: Jeff Daniels, “God of Carnage”
I adore Raul Esparza, but I’m not holding my breath for him to win a Tony this year. But if he does win, you’ll know about it.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
-Marcia Gay Hardin, “God of Carnage”
In the event of an upset: Janet McTeer, “Mary Stuart”

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
-David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish; “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Gavin Creel, “Hair”
If the three Billys don’t win, that will be quite the upset.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
-Alice Ripley, “Next to Normal”
In the event of an upset: Josefina Scaglione, “West Side Story”
I might be over confident that Alice Ripley will win. Watch me be wrong.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
-Roger Robinson, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
In the event of an upset: Stephen Mangan, “The Norman Conquests”

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
-Angela Lansbury, “Blithe Spirit”
In the event of an upset: Hallie Foote, “Dividing the Estate”

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
-Gregory Jbara, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Will Swenson, “Hair”

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
-Karen Olivio, “West Side Story”
In the event of an upset: Haydn Gwynne, “Billy Elliot”
I am maybe overly confident that Karen Olivio will win this, but if not, Haydn Gwynne.

Best Direction of a Play
-Matthew Warchus, “The Norman Conquests”
In the event of an upset: Bartlett Sher, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone” or Phyllida Lloyd, “Mary Stuart”
Statistically, Matthew Warchus has the best chances of winning.

Best Direction of a Musical
-Stephen Daldry, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Diane Paulus, “Hair”
What is it with Stephen Daldry and juggernauts?

Best Choreography
-Peter Darling, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Karole Armitage, “Hair”
I really doubt that Peter Darling won’t win the Tony Award. Come on, the show is about a boy who want’s to do ballet.

Best Orchestrations
-Martin Koch, “Billy Elliot”
In the event of an upset: Larry Blank, “Irving Berlin’s White Christmas”
From now on, “In the event of an upset” means “If this show doesn’t win, it will be this show”

Best Scenic Design of a Play
-Rob Howell, “The Norman Conquests”
In the event of an upset: Derek McLane, “33 Variations”

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
-Mark Wendland, “Next to Normal”
In the event of an upset: Ian MacNeil, “Billy Elliot”
What? Did you think I was going to say “Guys and Dolls” for an upset?

Best Costume Design of a Play
-Dale Ferguson, “Exit the King”
In the event of an upset: Anthony Ward, “Mary Stuart”

Best Costume Design of a Musical
-Michael McDonald, “Hair”
In the event of an upset: Nicky Gillibrand, “Billy Elliot”
I just think it’s safe to put “Billy Elliot” in.

Best Lighting Design of a Play
-Hugh Vanstone, “Mary Stuart”
In the event of an upset: David Lander, “33 Variations”

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
-Howell Binkley, “West Side Story”
In the event of an upset: Kevin Adams for either “Hair” or “Next to Normal”
Again, statistics.

Best Sound Design of a Play
-Paul Arditti, “Mary Stuart”
In the event of an upset:I have no clue.
There is a thunderstorm that happens in “Mary Stuart”.

Best Sound Design of a Musical
-Brian Ronan, “Next to Normal”
In the event of an upset: Paul Arditti, “Billy Elliot”
I read Hilton Als review of “Hair”. And every review I’ve read on a blog of “Rock of Ages” has said the show was loud.

Best Special Theatrical Event
-“Liza’s At the Palace”
In the event of an upset: “You’re Welcome America: A Final Night With George W. Bush”
My father: It’s Liza. ‘Nuff said.

Remember to come back here next Sunday when I’ll be live-blogging, or more or less blogging during the commercial breaks.

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